Today is July 22, 2012. I predict the Assad regime will fall within a month. Why?
- The UN, including China & Russia have agreed to extending the UN observer mission for a final one month. Effectively giving themselves one month to reach resolution.
- The regime despite its vast military superiority is unable to maintain control over every square mile of the land. They have lost control over border crossings and even if only for a brief period of time, it allows the rebels to bring in arms and resources into the country.
- Russia and China are not supporting Assad. They are protecting their own self interest and the principle of non interference by external governments in a domestic national dispute. As the Assad regime approaches demise the Chinese and Russian economic interests in the region will exceed their interest in supporting a lost cause.
- My prediction is that China & Russia, the same countries that publicly oppose the ousting of Assad will privately force Assad to a "graceful" exit thereby gracefully exiting themselves from the position they are in.
I hope my prediction is right. Otherwise my belief that the UN is a totally impotent organization will once again be demonstrated.